Canadian Federal Polling Analysis February 2025

Author: Jaegar Laird: Social Media & Political Consultant Note: Rogue Advantage (www.rogueadvantage.com) is a digital political consulting firm based in Atlantic Canada. We’re proud to serve and support the Progressive Conservative Party of Nova Scotia, the Conservative Party of Canada, and related organizations.

Table of Contents

Section 1: Our Goal

Section 2: Rogue’s Key Insights and Actionable Insights

Topic 1: Trump, Tariffs, and National Pride

Topic 2: Demographic Trends

Topic 3: Poilievre’s “Trump Problem”

Topic 4: Top Issues – Shifting Electoral Strategy

Topic 5: Polling and Trends for Trudeau, Carney, and Poilievre

Topic 6: Emerging Trends to Watch in March

Section 3: Your Campaign’s Next Steps

Section 4: Poll Tracking in February 2025

a. Early February (February 1–11, 2025)

b. Mid-February (February 12–20, 2025)

c. Late February (February 21–28, 2025)

Section 1: Our Goal

Election campaigns are won or lost. There is no second place.

February 2025 was pivotal for Canadian politics and now is a pivotal time for Conservative

messaging. The electoral landscape has shifted, and Trump’s threats of tarifs is leading to

a resurgence in the Liberals under Mark Carney. For the frst time in two years, the Liberal

Party lead a national poll (Ipsos).

Polls are a snapshot in time, not a crystal ball. It is important to not “ride the Poller-

coaster”. However, they provide useful insights to inform data driven decision making. We

have analyzed over 350 pages of Canada’s top-rated polls and used our insights from over

50,000 ad views in February. With a federal election coming, campaigns are getting busy.

We’re here to help make sure you’re not missing anything in the crosstabs.

We offer an honest analysis of what is and isn’t resonating so that campaigns can be

proactive and not reactive. February wasn’t the best month for the Conservative Party,

and March will mark a pivotal shift in Conservative messaging with the additions of Trump

and Carney. Our insights aren’t regurgitations of summaries already posted; they are meant

to be applied to your campaign, on the ground and digitally.

Our insights have a focus on Atlantic Canada, on its own and comparatively. The numbers

show that Atlantic Canadians are proud of Canada right now, and they are favouring the

Liberals by a healthy margin of between 10-20 points. And Pierre Poilievre has a “Trump

Problem”; the overwhelming majority of Atlantic Canadians disapprove of Trump, but

many of Poilievre’s supporters approve of Trump, especially out West. Atlantic campaigns

will have to figure out how to navigate this issue in the month of March before the

Liberals define the race.

I hope this paints a picture of a close race, because it definitely is. Data driven decision

making combined with the “vibes on the ground” will win this election. If you believe the

polls, initial excitement over the Conservatives has waned, so adjustments in messaging

need to be made.

I hope this report helps you with planning your messaging. Please reach out if you would

like to discuss findings or how to apply them.

Jaegar Laird, Social Media & Political Consultant

Rogue Management

jaegar@rogueconsultingco.com

Section 2: Rogue’s Key Insights

Since Trudeau’s resignation, the political landscape has quickly shifted as Trump’s

economic policies and a new Liberal leader reshape voter sentiment. Atlantic Canada,

traditionally a Liberal stronghold, is becoming more contested. Conservatives enjoyed a

commanding lead not long ago, but Trump’s tariff threats and a new Liberal leader have led

the race to a statistical tie by the end of the month. Both the Liberals and Conservatives are

finding opportunities and vulnerabilities in the evolving political climate. March will be a

pivotal month for polling and shaping the new message, and February’s insights can guide

the way:

1. The election will be fought on economic nationalism – The overall message has

shifted from a referendum on Trudeau to a referendum on dealing with Trump. The

Liberals will frame themselves as defenders against Trump’s trade war, while the

Conservatives must clarify their stance.

2. Carney is the Liberals’ best hope, but he remains undefined – Carney is in his

honeymoon. His economic credibility is a strength, but he needs a populist

connection to working-class voters. Carney is not well defned, and neither are

Conservative attacks, so more polling (and time) is required.

3. Poilievre must distance himself from Trump – Trump is a drag on Poilievre,

especially in Atlantic Canada. Anxiety and anger about Trump is highest in Atlantic

Canada, and Poilievre is not doing enough to distance himself.

4. In late February, Atlantic Canada sees a 10-20% Liberal lead – The numbers have

tightened up, and especially in Atlantic Canada. The Liberal surge has come at the

expense of both Conservative and NDP support.

Actionable Insights

• Beware of the Messaging Transition: Rely more on the local candidate and less on

the national brand. The Conservatives have been on message for a while, but the

national message is shifting from “Carbon Tax/Trudeau” to “Canada First/Carney”

and Conservative polling hasn’t seen returns.

• Carney’s elitism problem: Carney should be branded as someone who doesn’t

understand working people, and who isn’t interested in making life more affordable.

He lacks a populist appeal to really dig into Conservative support.

• Encourage moderates to join: Position Poilievre as a serious Prime Minister to deal

with Trump through local candidates and local endorsements.

Topic 1: Trump, Tariffs, and National Pride

Nationally and in Atlantic Canada, Trump’s 25% tariff threat has upended the political

landscape. The situation is dynamic with deadlines being proposed and pushed back.

• The Liberals are resurging: The Liberals, once fighting for 3rd place, have narrowed

the gap with the Conservatives to a statistical tie in national polls. This is largely due

to growing economic nationalism (anti-Trump and “Buy Canadian”), which

benefits a party seen as willing to stand up to Trump.

o See: Leger, Nanos, Ipsos, Abacus, Innovative

• Atlantic Canada is anti-Trump and pro-Team Canada: ~60% of Atlantic Canadians

are purchasing Canadian goods over American goods. 87% of Atlantic Canadians

are concerned about trade pressures, the highest in Canada.

o See: Leger, Ekos

• Patriotism on the Rise: A record 85% of Canadians now express pride in their

country, with Atlantic Canada reporting higher-than-average levels (87%).

Confidence in the direction of the country are at a two-year high.

o See: Leger, Abacus

• Liberals are gaining from the sentiment of Economic Nationalism: This aligns

with the Liberals’ messaging about economic sovereignty and standing up to

Trump. 81% of Canadians are actively shifting purchases away from U.S. goods,

meaning it’s not the best time for Conservatives to stand up for American products.

o See: Leger

Topic 2: Demographic Trends

• Men skew Conservative, Women skew Liberal: Men and women diverge from

Conservative and Liberal averages, respectively, by ~8 points in favour. This is

consistent across polls.

o See: Pallas, Ekos

• Older voters favour Liberals; could favour stability: Conservatives sufer with

senior citizens. This could be because of Poilievre’s populist rhetoric.

o See: Pallas, Ekos

• Conservatives remain popular among 18-34, 35-49, and male voters: Across

pollsters and poll types, these demographic groups are usually more cynical about

Canada, the future, the state of the economy, and Liberals.

o See: Pallas, Ekos, Leger

• Conservatives heavily favoured by college educated (not university):

Conservative support is very high among college educated voters. This is most likely

driven by men in skilled trades.

o See: Ekos

• Conservatives not excelling with any income groups: Conservatives hover around

their average with Poor, Working, Middle, & Upper. Liberals see a higher share of

Middle-class support then their average.

o See: Ekos

• Conservatives lack support from LGBTQ, have stable support from visible

minorities: Conservatives see -20 points of support from LGBTQ from their national

average, but their support remains stable with visible minorities.

o See: Ekos

Topic 3: Poilievre’s “Trump Problem”

• Poilievre not seen as a national leader: While his Canada First economic

messaging is intended to appeal to national pride, his preference for free trade and

alignment with small-government policies creates pressures in the face of Doug

Ford’s “Captain Canada” majority win. He is also under pressure as he is not the

favored leader to deal with Donald Trump. More Canadians believe Doug Ford has

done a better job than Pierre Poilievre at representing Canada’s views to the US

o See: Innovative, Mainstreet

• Trump Hurts Poilievre in Atlantic Canada: While Poilievre remains the frontrunner

on aggregators like 338Canada and The Writ (CBC), he faces skepticism in Atlantic

Canada. His low approval rating of the way he’s dealt with Trump in Atlantic

Canada (31%), coupled with the importance of the Trump issue, is a liability for

Conservatives.

o See: Leger, Innovative

Topic 4: Top Issues – Shifting Electoral Strategy

• Conservatives have lost decisive lead on Jobs & Economy: In the absence of

Trudeau, voter sentiment is transitioning. Carney is still in a relatively unknown

stage, and arguably a honeymoon. His resume reassures voters but his economics

(in a political sense) have not yet been defined.

o See: Leger, Nanos

• Atlantic Canada Prioritizes Healthcare: Healthcare remains a top concern in

the region, with ER closures and doctor shortages driving voter dissatisfaction. The

NSPC Party has seen success against the Liberals running on healthcare. It could be

a way to project stability for the Conservatives.

o See: Nanos, Leger

• Conservatives still have the advantage on Inflation: Rising cost of living is still a

top election issue for many voters and it will be difficult for Carney to dismiss these

challenges or come up with a plan that resonates in time.

o See: Nanos

• Not a “Carbon Tax Election”: Affordability remains a top 3 concern for Canadians,

and many Atlantic Canadians have faced financial instability. But the absence of

Trudeau means he and his unpopular policies aren’t immediately top of mind.

o See: Nanos

Topic 5: Polling and Trends for Trudeau, Carney, and Poilievre

Credit: Wikipedia

• Justin Trudeau’s Exit as a Reset Button: Trudeau’s resignation, once seen as an

electoral liability, has given the Liberals a chance to rebrand. His approval remains

in the net negative, but his departure has removed a major Conservative attack

line. With either Freeland or Gould as leader, the Liberals are stuck with Trudeau’s

baggage.

o See: Nanos, Innovative, Leger

• Carney’s Strength in Economic Management: Polls show Carney outperforms

Poilievre in trust on U.S.-Canada relations, but his corporate background may

make him vulnerable to attacks as an elitist disconnected from working-class

concerns.

o See: Leger, Innovative, Ekos

• Poilievre’s Struggles in Atlantic Canada: Poilievre’s support is lowest in Atlantic

Canada. His challenge is to soften his image among moderates, particularly those

concerned about the impact of trade wars.

o See: Leger, Ekos

Topic 6: Emerging Trends to Watch in March

• A Possible Conservative Rebound: Carney’s honeymoon may come to an end if

the Conservative successfully label Carney as “sneaky” or tie his economic

accomplishments to former Finance Minister Jim Flaherty. The effectiveness of their

latest messages is yet to be seen. Conservative Party accounts and MPs are posting

lots of anti-Carney material.

• How Carney Campaigns as Prime Minister: Carney so far has run a campaign

about a stable economy and responsible government. Watch how much energy

Carney delegates to Poilievre attacks, Trump/US Relations, and kitchen table

politics.

• When the election is called: Polls often ask, “if an election was held today”.

February has seen large shifts from the beginning of the month to the end of the

month. There is reason to believe that Carney doesn’t want the oxygen getting

sucked out of the room by getting defeated in a confidence vote, so an election may

be imminent.

• Tariffs, How They Affect Canada, and How Long Stay: Trump’s threat of 25% tariffs

shows no sign of going away. This will have negative impacts on economic growth

and confidence. The political landscape has shifted so much just due to threats, so

the economic impacts that take time could shift the landscape even more.

Section 3: Your Campaign’s Next Steps

1. Making Tariffs a Winning Issue

Weakness: Poilievre’s numbers to handle Trump and tariffs could be better.

Realistic Solution: Use local candidates to stand up for Canada.

Tactics:

• Local Content: Atlantic Conservative candidates and surrogates should make their

own videos about why Poilievre’s economic plan works for the region. They should

also quickly explain why tariffs are bad for Atlantic Canada.

Example: Why I trust Poilievre’s economic plan from candidates, business owners,

etc.

• Regional Focus on Trade Protection: Instead of talking about tariffs in general,

highlight specific Atlantic industries that a Conservative government will protect.

Example: Fisheries, forestry, agriculture, manufacturing

• Attack Donald Trump: Trump is deeply unpopular in Atlantic Canada, and Canada

is now a player and not a spectator in his game. Speak out against anti-Canadian

policies and lay it at the foot of Trump to stand up for Canada.

Example: When Trump issues new tariffs, speak out against them in simple terms.

2. Attack Mark Carney’s Elitism Weakness: Mark Carney is not well defined yet.

Realistic Solution: Attack his elitism, ties to Trudeau, and lack of mandate.

Tactics:

• Mark Carney as an elitist: Carney is a self-proclaimed elitist, saying that maybe

that’s what the world needs right now. He has spent lots of time outside Canada. He

left Bank of Canada for England which was scandalous at the time. Carney is only

concerned about his resume, and not about Canadians.

• Mark Carney and Justin Trudeau: Like how Harris was tied to Biden’s border and

social agenda, it will be important to highlight key issues like immigration and

climate where Carney will need to make extra effort to distance himself from

Trudeau’s most unpopular policies.

• Mark Carney’s Lack of Mandate: Only 152,000 people voted for Mark Carney to be

the Prime Minister. Poilievre received nearly double that to become Conservative

leader. Highlight his lack of mandate now that he is officially in office.

3. Winning Over Moderate Conservatives & Swing Voters

Weakness: Conservatives need to win swing Liberal/NDP voters in Atlantic Canada.

Realistic Solution: Frame Conservatives as the only alternative to Liberal failure.

Tactics:

• Poilievre and looking like Prime Minister: Poilievre has relied on slogans and anger

thus far to define Trudeau. With more serious issues top of mind, frame him as a

serious alternative to take on Trump.

• Avoid Overly Partisan Language: Avoid hyper-partisan language as it could sway

undecided voters to a more serious alternative.

Final Takeaways – How to Make It Work in Atlantic Canada

✔ Use Community-Driven Messaging – Let business owners, workers, and local

candidates drive the message.

✔ Leverage Third-Party Content – Quickly define Carney as an out-of-touch elitist who is

tied to Trudeau’s most unpopular policies.

✔ Engage Moderates with Questions, Not Attacks – Encourage moderates to come on

board with Poilievre’s plan. “What has the Liberal government actually done to bring prices

down?”

Section 4: Detailed Poll Tracking in February 2025

This section outlines how political support evolved in Canada over February 2025, based

on data from Leger, Nanos, Ipsos, Ekos, and Pallas. It is divided into three time periods:

• Early February (Feb 1–11)

• Mid-February (Feb 12–20)

• Late February (Feb 21–28)

Each section will include:

• Party support numbers nationally

• Party support numbers in Atlantic Canada

• Leadership approval ratings

• Key voter concerns based on polling data.

Early February (February 1–11, 2025)

Party Support Nationally:

• Conservatives: 40% (down 3 points from late January) – Leger

• Liberals: 31% (up 6 points from late January) – Leger

• NDP: 14% (down 2 points from late January) – Leger

Party Support in Atlantic Canada:

• Conservatives: 31% (up 2 points from late January) – Leger

• Liberals: 49% (up 7 points from late January) – Leger

• NDP: 15% (up 3 points from late January) – Leger Leadership & Approval Ratings:

• Poilievre’s net approval: -4% nationally – Innovative

• Carney’s net approval: No data

Key Voter Issues (source: Nanos Weekly):

1. Jobs/Economy (19.3%)

2. Trump/US (10.3%)

3. Inflation (9.6%)

Insight: The Conservatives began February with a strong lead, but the Liberals showed

early signs of recovery, largely due to NDP voters shifting toward them. Economic

concerns and trade were top priorities.

Mid-February (February 12–20, 2025)

Party Support Nationally:

• Conservatives: 41% (up 1 point from early February) – Leger

• Liberals: 33% (up 2 points from early February) – Leger

• NDP: 11% (declining 3 points as voters shifted elsewhere) – Leger

Party Support in Atlantic Canada:

• Conservatives: 23% (down 8 points from start of February) – Leger

• Liberals: 52% (up 3 points from start of February) – Leger

• NDP: 17% (up 2 points from start of February) – Leger

Leadership & Approval Ratings:

• Poilievre’s net approval: -4% nationally - Innovative

• Carney’s net approval: +8% nationally - Innovative

Key Voter Issues:

1. Jobs/Economy (19.9%)

2. Trump/US (15.0%)

3. Inflation (8.7%)

Insight: The Liberals gained momentum as Carney solidified support from NDP voters.

Trump’s tariffs and trade became central election issues, pushing some undecided

voters toward the Liberals.

Late February (February 21–28, 2025)

Party Support Nationally:

• Conservatives: 38% (down 3 points from mid-February) – Leger

• Liberals: 35% (up 2 points from mid-February) – Leger

• NDP: 14% (up 3 points from mid-February) – Leger

Party Support in Atlantic Canada:

• Conservatives: 29% (up 6 points from mid-February) – Leger

• Liberals: 50% (down 2 points from mid-February) – Leger

• NDP: 14% (down 3 points from mid-February) – Leger

Leadership & Approval Ratings:

• Poilievre’s net approval: -4% nationally - Innovative

• Carney’s net approval: +8% nationally - Innovative

Key Voter Issues:

1. Trump/US (20.1%)

2. Jobs/Economy (19.3%)

3. Healthcare (9.4%)

Insight: The Liberal surge slowed, and the race stabilized into a tight contest. The

Conservatives held their rural base, while the Liberals gained urban and former NDP

support.

Conclusion: How February’s Polling Shaped the Campaign

• Conservatives started February with a strong lead but lost ground mid-month as

Liberals gained former NDP voters and some moderate Conservatives.

• Carney gained credibility on economic and trade issues, while Poilievre faced

attacks on his U.S.-Canada relations stance.

• By the end of the month, Conservative support stabilized, and both parties entered

March in a highly competitive race.

This sets up a high-stakes March, with both parties needing to secure undecided voters

in Atlantic Canada ahead of the next polling cycle. About Jaegar Laird

Jaegar is passionate about politics, communications, and strategy. He has worked as a Page in the Nova Scotia Legislature and as a Political Assistant to an MLA, gaining firsthand insight into policy and government. He is an ardent political observer and volunteer, having most recently served as Social Media Chair for a provincial campaign where he lead digital strategy, created ads, and crafted a winning message. Jaegar currently studies Economics and Political Science at Dalhousie University. In his spare time he enjoys photography, and playing guitar, bass, and drums. He is excited to bring his diligence and deep political experience to Rogue.