MIT Proved That Our Ad Strategy Works
- Jaegar Laird
- Jul 17
- 8 min read
“In terms of the implications for political advertising, it certainly seems like targeting is often going to be a good idea, and if you’re not doing that, you may be leaving persuasive power on the table,”
- David Rand, co-author of the study & Erwin H. Schell Professor at the MIT Sloan School of Management.
Author: Jaegar Laird, Social Media & Political Consultant
Contact: jaegar@rogueconsultingco.com
Note: Rogue Advantage (www.rogueadvantage.com) is a digital political consulting firm based in Atlantic Canada. We’re proud to serve and support the Progressive Conservative Party of Nova Scotia, the Conservative Party of Canada, and related organizations.
Table of Contents
70% More Effective Than Generic Ads
MIT research proves that political ads targeted using a single attribute can be 70% more persuasive. We’ve already seen this effect on the ground — and we’ve got the results to prove it.
Simple Targeting = Smarter Campaigns
Forget over-engineered ad strategies. The most effective digital campaigns keep it simple — and that makes it easier for local teams to act without waiting for central office direction.
Bridging The Gap: From Clicks to Votes
Most campaigns can’t tell if a Facebook ad actually leads to a vote. We can — because we’ve built the system that connects digital engagement to real-world voter behaviour.
Introduction
Campaigns are slowly catching up with their digital presence. Still, we are noticing that PC and Conservative campaigns are missing the mark and leaving votes on the table.
Recent research from MIT confirms what we know: microtargeted ads work, and they can be as much as 70% more effective at swaying people than blasting a single message.
Moreover, what this study also reveals is that microtargeting is accessible for campaigns on-the-ground. The key is targeting a single variable like age, sex, or interests, and not a complex combination.
In this article I will first break down that 70% number, and explain how it compares to our internal results. Next, I will explain why targeting based on a single variable is most effective and why that matters for campaigns. Finally, I will address a key question the research poses: how do you know if you’ve converted votes on social media? While firms across North America try to figure this out, we are working on a solution.
The future of political marketing is focused, and Conservative campaigns that get it right will have an edge over any opponent.
70% More Effective than Generic Ads
“Indeed, the study found that tailoring political ads based on one attribute of their intended audience — say, party affiliation — can be 70 percent more effective in swaying policy support than simply showing everyone the single ad that is expected to be most persuasive across the entire population. But targeting political ads using multiple attributes — for instance, ideology, age, and moral values — did not add any further benefit, in the study.”
This is a standout number, and it speaks to the effectiveness of what we do.
To briefly explain how they got to that number, they simulated what campaigns do over two phases of the study.
First, over 23,000 participants were shown either basic or persuasive ads on a policy to simulate campaigns testing different messages. The feedback was recorded and influenced which ads were shown in phase two.
In the next phase, they were shown one of three ads to see which swayed opinion most. Either the least-offensive ad (the poll tested message); a random ad (an ineffective ad); or a persuasive ad based on some combination of age, sex, and partisan affiliation (an effective ad). Some people were shown ads based on just one characteristic, two characteristics, or all three.
The results showed that targeting someone based on one of these characteristics was as much as 70% more persuasive than the least-offensive or best-polling ad.
We have seen similar success on our campaigns. Microtargeted ads have helped our campaigns reach new voters, generate lots of engagement, and break through the noise.
It’s no surprise. When you go to a door during the campaign, you don’t blast a single message to that house. You take lots into consideration, like where they live, what they drive, what previous data you have on them, and the reaction they give at the door. We are bringing a similar level of precision to digital advertising and we see the results.
For comparison, on our campaigns, we have seen as much as a 60% swing in vote share, with moderately high statistical significance. In other words, we are seeing success–these aren’t just lab results.
Simple Targeting = Smarter Campaigns
“Ultimately, the targeting strategy performed better than these other tactics, but the microtargeted ads based on multiple voter characteristics were not more effective than those based on only one characteristic.”
The results from this paper should bring peace of mind to both ground-level campaigns as well as central campaigns. This confirms that microtargeted ads are a realistic tool to deploy on campaigns. That’s because right now, microtargeted ad campaigns based on multiple variables bring no extra benefit than ad campaigns based on one variable. It doesn’t need to be complicated. In practice, the most important thing for ground-level campaigns is knowing the key divisions in their riding and choosing how to advertise to those groups.
For example, if there are lots of seniors and young people struggling with affordability within a riding, it would be best to microtarget those groups with demographic-specific messages. Rather than blasting a single message with social media posts, a more targeted approach would be more persuasive. For seniors, you would highlight a seniors' policy and the retirement age. For younger people, you would highlight plans to make owning a home more affordable.
In addition, consider the law of diminishing marginal utility from economics. When consuming more of something, your satisfaction increases at a decreasing rate. The first burger is better than the second, the second burger is better than the third. This is true for everything from hamburgers to political ads. Realistically, people can only consume so much political content before there is too much noise and they start to check out mentally.
Here’s the takeaway: every view for every voter should count. If a person consistently sees irrelevant content from a politician, they naturally won’t feel like they are being heard. Hypothetically, if all a 20 year old voter sees from one party is policy for seniors, and all they see from another party is cost of living, they are going to be drawn to the second party. Fortunately, campaigns now have a cost-effective and accurate way to have the best of both worlds.
Bridging the Gap: From Clicks to Votes
“It is important to remember that microtargeting in the context of political persuasion works differently than it does for business advertising, Rand suggests, since it is hard to generate the data needed to train the political targeting models and distribute the resulting ads.
“Microtargeting in politics also works differently than it does for business advertising, Rand suggests, since it is hard to generate the data needed to train the political targeting models and distribute the resulting ads.
“If Facebook is doing microtargeting based on selling widgets, it’s able to get good feedback on whether you bought the widgets or not, and then use that data to continually optimize the targeting,” Rand says. In politics, it is much harder to obtain reliable information about voter attitudes and voting decisions — making it very difficult to effectively microtarget political ads at scale.”
The study identifies a key challenge: how can you collect accurate data on whether a Facebook user voted for you?
That’s where we come in. Using our expertise with Social Listening tools in addition to targeted ad campaigns, we are bridging the gap to link what happens online with the data campaigns already have. Not only is there a tremendous amount of extra data on social media platforms that we utilize, once we reach these voters campaigns have a direct line of communication with them.
This is a new horizon for campaigns, and there are still challenges to figure out. But while firms across the political spectrum try to solve this problem, we are working on solutions that will put our campaigns ahead of their competition. These are advanced tools that the private sector has barely used, and most campaigns haven’t fathomed tools like Social Listening and targeted ad campaigns.
Conclusion
MIT has done the research, and we have the results to back it up.
Microtargeted ads are much more effective than blasting a single message. The study found that they can be as much as 70% more effective than a generic message at swaying voters. These aren’t just lab results either, we see a large uptick in reach and engagement from our targeted ad campaigns.
Targeted ads are a realistic tool for campaigns to use. Effective campaigns don’t need to be complicated, they need to be well placed. Instead of complex layers of different characteristics, effective ad campaigns push the right message to the right voter, like how cost of living gets framed to different age groups.
While most other campaigns are guessing when they post, we have better data to drive what we do with advanced tools like Social Listening and our ad campaigns. We are building a ‘digital pathway’ from online to the ballot box, and bridging that gap between knowing someone liked your post and knowing that someone voted for you.
In closing, let me be clear: Conservative campaigns that get this right will be a couple yards ahead of their competitors. The future of political marketing is focused, and we are here to help campaigns bridge that gap and get ahead.
Our Expertise at Rogue Advantage
These strategies aren’t industry standard for a reason: they take time, skill, and precision. That’s what Rogue Advantage delivers.
Rogue Advantage gives your campaign the digital edge to win. Unlike traditional agencies, we bring private-sector expertise, AI-driven insights, and real-time strategy without the bloated costs.
When it comes to having a digital advantage and winning, the numbers speak for themselves.
15 custom-built political websites launched.
230,000+ engaged voters through precisely targeted ads.
83% of our retained clients won their elections.
What We Offer
Election Cycle | Between Elections |
Voter Identification & GOTV • Build voter lists using data from targeted messaging • Integrate social media profiles with existing voter profiles • Deliver targeted turnout messages to identified supporters Election Digital Strategy • Integrated campaign messaging • Competitor & issue tracking • Weekly reports & voter insights • 24/7 crisis response Social & Media Listening • AI-powered monitoring of voter sentiment • Track opposition attacks before they escalate • Data-driven insights to refine campaign strategy Political Ad Strategy & Execution • Facebook, Instagram, Google, and more • Precision targeting by geography & demographics • Real-time ad performance adjustments | Social Media Growth & Strategy • Expand your audience & influence • Competitor monitoring & strategic content planning • Bi-monthly engagement & analytics Website Development & Security • Custom-built campaign sites optimized for voter engagement • SEO-friendly design to rank higher on Google • Donation platform & email list integration Social Media Training Course • Build platform skills on Facebook, Instagram, and Canva • Learn about effective copywriting, content planning & political storytelling • Includes digital GOTV, analytics, and best practices tailored for your campaign and constituency |
Get in touch with us today.
If your social media strategy ends with a post, you’re leaving votes on the table. We help you win online—before, during, and after election day.
Wade MacCallum, Founder
Email: wade@rogueconsultingco.com
Phone: (902) 401-9775
About Jaegar Laird
Jaegar is passionate about politics, communications, and strategy. He has worked as a Page in the Nova Scotia Legislature and as a Political Assistant to an MLA, gaining firsthand insight into politics and government. He's been a key member of campaign teams where he has implemented digital strategies, crafted targeted ad campaigns, and pushed a winning message. Jaegar studies Economics and Political Science at Dalhousie University. In his spare time he enjoys photography, and playing guitar, bass, and drums.
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